Kosovo’s NATO future: How to Square the Circle?

Of all the Western Balkan countries, Kosovo is the last one to develop and implement its independent foreign security and defence policy. Since the country’s independence in 2008, NATO integration has been one of the main governmental priorities. To date, Kosovo remains the only country in the region that does not have some form of contractual relationship with the Alliance (see Figure 1). Rapprochements, such as the application for the Partnership for Peace programme in 2012, have so far been in vain. Believing it would be a game changer, the Kosovo Parliament voted in December 2018 to transform its security forces, the Kosovo Security Force (KSF), into a national army. The transformation has been on the political agenda multiple times, as Pristina conceives this to be the final step for Kosovo to complete its security institutions.

While this decision was supported by the United States (US), NATO’s Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed his concern and called the decision “ill-timed”. The problem at the heart of it all revolves around one central issue: the fact that after Kosovo declared its independence, Serbiaand four NATO members did not recognise it. This enduring dispute is hamperingKosovo’s further integration into NATO, or into other international forums for that matter. A lack of normalisation with Serbia and the issue of non recognisers have thrown up political as well as legal barriers to Kosovo’s relationship with the NATO led Kosovo Force (KFOR) as well as with NATO itself, including its prospects for future membership.

The question arises whether an alternative to the current Kosovo-NATO relationship is feasible under these circumstances. This policy brief analyses the various obstacles and opportunities for Kosovo to strengthen its ties to NATO. The following sections provide a brief history of NATO in Kosovo, including the role of KFOR, and the transformation of the KSF into a national army. The subsequent part delineates possible political and military steps that Kosovo could take in the short and medium term, in order to prepare itself as a credible future partner. Then, the authors analyse some ways in which NATO and Kosovo can strengthen ties under the current circumstances. Finally, the policy brief ends with conclusions and recommendations.