As the first anniversary of the Brussels Agreement comes around in April, northern Kosovo has yet to reach a new balance. It remains in transitory limbo, subject to pulling-and-tugging that has both security and political implications. This paper analyses the bleak outlook for implementing the agreement during 2014, with looming elections in Serbia, Kosovo and the EU. It focuses on the latest developments with regard to the Association of Serbian Municipalities in Kosovo, cautions against a number of risks and suggests how to reduce the persistent potential for inter-ethnic conflict. The usefulness of constructive ambiguity that has helped Belgrade and Prishtina to get closer is rapidly diminishing. It is essential to establish communication between Prishtina and northern Serbs, to ensure that all sides see the value of implementing planned power-sharing arrangements.

Introduction

The core of the Brussels Agreement, signed on 19 April 2013 between Belgrade and Prishtina, was that Serbia de facto would assent to Kosovo’s territorial integrity in exchange for a supra-municipal structure for Kosovo Serbs. Following negotiations led by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, Serbia agreed to cede administrative control over the north and, effectively, abandon ambitions for partition. In return, it was given the ability to exercise influence legally, through the Association/Community of Serbian municipalities (ASM). This body, to be composed by a core of four northern municipalities as well as six Serb-majority municipalities in the rest of Kosovo, was intended to diffuse the underlying territorial dispute, but it could also serve as the vehicle for a new political mobilisation. It is, therefore, essential to fathom which factors could push the ASM towards gradual inter-ethnic cooperation, or cement the old territorial and communal divide – this time within Kosovo.

In our first joint paper, we predicted that northern Kosovo was moving towards a new state of imbalance after the November 2013 local elections, which unfolded according to our realistic and pessimistic scenarios. The main fear now is that forthcoming elections in Serbia, Kosovo and at the EU level will keep it off-balance, allowing the situation to simmer without resolution.